{
  "title": "台北市長首場辯論後 Polymarket：研究口徑與可複算發現",
  "debate_taipei": [
    "2026-10-31T12:00:00+08:00",
    "2026-10-31T14:00:00+08:00"
  ],
  "trade_data_cutoff_taipei": "2026-11-02T12:24:12+08:00",
  "chain_balances_at": {
    "number": 96596021,
    "time_taipei": "2026-11-02T14:04:48+08:00"
  },
  "method": [
    "公開 Data API 以 eventId=848341、takerOnly=true，逐日 start/end 封閉視窗擷取；每頁上限 1000，取至末頁。總計 3470 列，沒有完全重複列。",
    "事前 24 小時為 10/30 12:00 至 10/31 12:00；事後 24 小時為 10/31 14:00 至 11/1 14:00；半開區間，辯論的 2 小時另列。",
    "成交名目額為 price × size，加總主動成交一側；不含費用，不代表入金或整個市場淨流入。地址數是這個樣本中的唯一 proxyWallet，不是人數。",
    "以各候選人 conditionId 獨立重取事後 24 小時資料，與 eventId 結果逐列比對一致：蔣 244 列、沈 264 列。",
    "Yes 方向份數 = 買 Yes + 賣 No − 賣 Yes − 買 No，只衡量主動方的方向；交易對手的相反風險不可省略，因此不能稱為全市場淨買超。",
    "分鐘價格取官方 prices-history。這是鏈下報價序列；鏈上證據另來自 Polygon RPC 的 transaction receipt、區塊時間與 ERC-1155 balanceOf。",
    "兩張焦點訂單共四筆鏈上收據：解碼官方 CTF Exchange V2 OrderFilled，對照 orderHash，分開 maker legs 與 taker summary，避免重複計數。",
    "同一地址的鏈上買進與持有不證明受益人身分、國籍、政治動機、資訊優勢，也無法排除其他地址或平台的避險。",
    "未完整重建整場選舉所有鏈上歷史、所有資金來源或歷史撤單，因此不宣稱識別操縱、內線或辯論的單獨因果效果。"
  ],
  "findings": {
    "A_wallet": "0x241a423fb4a82fcafc9b1e1944cc2ff367c22e4d",
    "B_wallet": "0x2b648bf36d605bd56f390ff3a5aa9ad332b20f3e",
    "roundtrip_wallet": "0x122cb94c437ea5e6f088c6c0c143c592ab8efbed",
    "A_order": {
      "order_hashes": [
        "0x007a5f8c90dc7142ac9099c1a35c6b9ed34f2e6ae3cdff24ad1ae2e85f4a8e57"
      ],
      "maker_fills": 64,
      "counterparty_addresses": 35,
      "yes_shares": 27156.996621,
      "yes_cash": 19599.999998,
      "min_yes_price": 0.69,
      "max_yes_price": 0.77,
      "newly_minted_pairs": 22986.836621,
      "existing_yes_shares": 4170.16,
      "fees": 0.0
    },
    "B_order": {
      "order_hashes": [
        "0x1c270f9c932914ff2702c24c8d9a5685f0a4e25af63733fb699615b2c299ddde"
      ],
      "maker_fills": 69,
      "counterparty_addresses": 46,
      "yes_shares": 32163.720717,
      "yes_cash": 10000.0,
      "min_yes_price": 0.27899999999999997,
      "max_yes_price": 0.34899999988539615,
      "newly_minted_pairs": 29206.420717,
      "existing_yes_shares": 2957.3,
      "fees": 275.16427
    },
    "A_minted_share": 0.8464425187292143,
    "A_post24_chiang_notional_share": 0.5720077955174221,
    "chiang_post24_directional_taker_shares": "26545.938274",
    "chiang_post24_directional_taker_shares_without_A": "-611.058347",
    "post24_notional_without_A": 44288.892334633,
    "roundtrip": {
      "wallet": "0x122cb94c437ea5e6f088c6c0c143c592ab8efbed",
      "trades": [
        {
          "tx": "0xf1a638ebc6c04471a83106802f5448d823e5957a43058cc4b4a734a4e2216778",
          "time_taipei": "2026-10-31T22:50:54+08:00",
          "side": "BUY",
          "api_shares": 2000,
          "chain_net_no_shares": 2000.0,
          "chain_net_pusd": -460.0,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0xa7339a7d32d340bd49cedff23b3c6ab1fcebfb2bc03d0643ce30a1216712f355",
          "time_taipei": "2026-10-31T23:40:40+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 90.02,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -90.02,
          "chain_net_pusd": 24.3054,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0xe5b8d48f603a00ac265dffdde8bc42f01beca29796037c8895b8d5a0b7e40f62",
          "time_taipei": "2026-10-31T23:58:18+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 214.14,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -214.14,
          "chain_net_pusd": 64.9834,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0xbed324a09bc349d538dabc1621f4546934d6d79e1c4fbee1377806dd10ab82ab",
          "time_taipei": "2026-10-31T23:59:51+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 30,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -30.0,
          "chain_net_pusd": 9.3,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0x9b01ecbef74c1a615bfe52b3069b88340bfc226aa98ef3a2c1e8acbee249a5cb",
          "time_taipei": "2026-10-31T23:59:52+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 10,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -10.0,
          "chain_net_pusd": 3.0,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0xf9fb1d52fa5c595287733a96774f666eacf725906a5c14ab858ce87c3e63cf5e",
          "time_taipei": "2026-11-01T00:00:13+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 30,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -30.0,
          "chain_net_pusd": 9.3,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0x6866c50ae5500141240559a00f3222d14849dc804d7345e35a02fd416a7527b4",
          "time_taipei": "2026-11-01T00:00:51+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 30,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -30.0,
          "chain_net_pusd": 9.3,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0x41c3dc09349c234b0094b4767260d9f11d4b67b4be9cab1288f91cd555b44ce0",
          "time_taipei": "2026-11-01T00:01:34+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 30,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -30.0,
          "chain_net_pusd": 9.3,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0x65b6e616da78c19412e50540bfef571127c6b5751b41cc5ce10f63343fdd51eb",
          "time_taipei": "2026-11-01T00:02:10+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 30,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -30.0,
          "chain_net_pusd": 9.3,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0xe11522f590eae7e0b57f69303181f7cfe0127b3b234e9de470135a4ac8acf518",
          "time_taipei": "2026-11-01T00:17:43+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 10,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -10.0,
          "chain_net_pusd": 3.0,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0xfebcb84cb4092a6b783488a5ec071cc64e369f78e6c4fe4ee69ee4b8478bfbc4",
          "time_taipei": "2026-11-01T00:17:45+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 141.96,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -141.96,
          "chain_net_pusd": 44.0076,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0x4eab71b901f3d91283d7a0eee1131978ee3d13f528a498dcfb810ba75d4e74a3",
          "time_taipei": "2026-11-01T00:17:45+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 686.09,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -686.09,
          "chain_net_pusd": 205.827,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0xbbe0962d155fba69cfa0187879a53422f425492b12dfe819c4df7d7b93bd329b",
          "time_taipei": "2026-11-01T00:17:49+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 5,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -5.0,
          "chain_net_pusd": 1.5,
          "fee": 0.0
        },
        {
          "tx": "0xf7fe719e5329b23f2701fe59d3d350da3305f09a0b00b38c04b35706e0ea71ee",
          "time_taipei": "2026-11-01T00:18:07+08:00",
          "side": "SELL",
          "api_shares": 692.79,
          "chain_net_no_shares": -692.79,
          "chain_net_pusd": 200.9091,
          "fee": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "net_pusd": 134.0325,
      "net_no_shares": 0.0,
      "fees": 0.0
    }
  },
  "sources": {
    "market": "https://polymarket.com/event/taipei-mayor-election-winner-20260813125857100",
    "trades_post24": "https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?eventId=848341&takerOnly=true&start=1793426400&end=1793512799&limit=1000",
    "debate": "https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aloc/202610310132.aspx",
    "event_layout": "https://github.com/Polymarket/ctf-exchange-v2/blob/main/src/exchange/mixins/Events.sol",
    "token_standard": "https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1155",
    "A_transactions": [
      "https://polygonscan.com/tx/0x74cbea97388d51a2f869e7a8bb133b265a070549a566da998c243515d37cb8c5",
      "https://polygonscan.com/tx/0x8dc5661b20f65ca585127de62fe300a7195bb4dfb71e9a4c7975ff6caf1992b3"
    ],
    "B_transactions": [
      "https://polygonscan.com/tx/0x63cbad3ffcccaf4d0bab4863520c7afb5c8aded8d414688954af8d0a859c0db1",
      "https://polygonscan.com/tx/0x9353b3a6418f7c6a36dcf0a937822e9424a35429007acfe98a6459374fd219f6"
    ]
  }
}